Project 1-2
Theme 1

Examination of spatial and temporal variation of extreme events

Leader:

Dr. Fahim Ashkar (Université de Moncton)
Email:  ashkarf@umoncton.ca

Co-investigators:

Dr. Donald Burn (University of Waterloo)
Email:  dhburn@uwaterloo.ca

Dr. Thian Gan (University of Alberta)
Email:  tgan@ualberta.ca

Objectives: Describing the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall and flood events with specified risk (return period); assessing whether and how changes in extreme events are occurring over time in various geographic regions of Canada; identifying regions where seasonal variations in flood flows need to be incorporated into the flood modelling due to the presence of distinct flood sub-populations.

Significance:  Increases in storm intensity over time have substantial implications on water resources infrastructure. Assessing the spatial distribution of extreme events (rainfall, floods) allows the identification of regions with significantly heavier rainfall, for example, or regions more prone to flooding. Taking proper account of seasonal variations in flood flows helps achieve improved estimates of low-frequency/large-magnitude extreme events.

Outcomes:  Outcomes from this project include: i) the identification of geographic regions within Canada in which water resources infrastructure might be particularly prone to high risk of severe rainfall or flooding; ii) the identification of regions in which distinct flood sub-populations are present and for which bias reductions in flood estimates could be achieved by taking proper account of flood sub-populations; and iii) a simplified method to apply the POT approach for the purpose of extreme flood and rainfall event estimation by practitioners.